#245 4/21   中偉     ​​貿易戰 —中美再一次交鋒

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韓戰後中美再一次交鋒，上一次是熱戰，而這一次是經濟實力的消耗戰，在雙方都不退讓情況下，貿易戰肯定要打下去，最終都沒有贏家。
 
這次貿易戰，有如韓戰的重演，只有打打談談，到雙方都覺得損害太大時，才能坐下來妥協，表 面上看來沒有勝負，但作為挑起貿易戰的美國，如果贏不到、就變成了輸家，顏面盡失，國際大哥地位不保，中國更因貿易戰後，國際地位因而提高，加快崛起速度。
 
美國打貿易戰，只有羊毛出在羊身上，首先受害的、是大眾常用的日用品漲價，在入口貨品中、加15%的稅款，意味著清費者、將要多付出、在目前貨品價錢上增加15%或更多，零售商如果不作大幅度加價，為減低運作成本，只有使多店鋪關閉，轉為網購，這將引致大量服務性行業的職位流失，到11月、美國中期選舉後，就可知到貿易戰、是否能繼續打下去了。
 
美國提出對中國600億貨品加15%關稅，對中國總體外貿額來說、只是極少的部份 ，傷不了中國，就算不做這些生意，只要增加內需、和一帶一路的倍增商機、將可抵消有餘。
 
中國經濟是以制造業，實體經濟為主，減少生產，開發更多新市場，憑著高超，高效的基建技術，資金，及互利共贏誠意，對當今世界各國缺乏資金，技術，和老化的基建設施，中國的投資吸引力，將會為中國創造無限商機。
 
反觀美國經濟以資訊，金融，房地產投資為主，高科技，高增值產品的客戶有限，或受出品限制而不能發揮更大經濟效能。打貿易戰將會重創資訊，金融，房地產，川普對中國一些貨品，徵收入口稅15%當天，道指就大跌700多點，次日再跌，可見影響美國經濟前景多大。
 
美國電影在中國市場收益更多創佳績，受歡迎的電影收益都是以億元計，其他如蘋果等美國企業在中國市場的得益，美國更不應該忽視。和中國打貿易戰，中國再不會買美國國債，日本或其他國家有能力接這麼多嗎？中國如果大幅減持美債，美國經濟受得起嗎？中國加速人民幣買油和國際化，美元強勢能保得住嗎？這些都是美國要深思的後遺問題。
 
美國打貿易戰，是平衡不到外貿赤字的下下之策，不符合兩國和全球利益，只有雙方坐下來，好好商討長遠合作方案，互保長短，才能達至互利共贏目的，貿易戰是不合時宜。
 

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