韓戰後中美再一次交鋒,上一次是熱戰,而這一次是經濟實力的消耗戰,在雙方都不退讓情況下,貿易戰肯定要打下去,最終都沒有贏家。
這次貿易戰,有如韓戰的重演,只有打打談談,到雙方都覺得損害太大時,才能坐下來妥協,表 面上看來沒有勝負,但作為挑起貿易戰的美國,如果贏不到、就變成了輸家,顏面盡失,國際大哥地位不保,中國更因貿易戰後,國際地位因而提高,加快崛起速度。
美國打貿易戰,只有羊毛出在羊身上,首先受害的、是大眾常用的日用品漲價,在入口貨品中、加15%的稅款,意味著清費者、將要多付出、在目前貨品價錢上增加15%或更多,零售商如果不作大幅度加價,為減低運作成本,只有使多店鋪關閉,轉為網購,這將引致大量服務性行業的職位流失,到11月、美國中期選舉後,就可知到貿易戰、是否能繼續打下去了。
美國提出對中國600億貨品加15%關稅,對中國總體外貿額來說、只是極少的部份 ,傷不了中國,就算不做這些生意,只要增加內需、和一帶一路的倍增商機、將可抵消有餘。
中國經濟是以制造業,實體經濟為主,減少生產,開發更多新市場,憑著高超,高效的基建技術,資金,及互利共贏誠意,對當今世界各國缺乏資金,技術,和老化的基建設施,中國的投資吸引力,將會為中國創造無限商機。
反觀美國經濟以資訊,金融,房地產投資為主,高科技,高增值產品的客戶有限,或受出品限制而不能發揮更大經濟效能。打貿易戰將會重創資訊,金融,房地產,川普對中國一些貨品,徵收入口稅15%當天,道指就大跌700多點,次日再跌,可見影響美國經濟前景多大。
美國電影在中國市場收益更多創佳績,受歡迎的電影收益都是以億元計,其他如蘋果等美國企業在中國市場的得益,美國更不應該忽視。和中國打貿易戰,中國再不會買美國國債,日本或其他國家有能力接這麼多嗎?中國如果大幅減持美債,美國經濟受得起嗎?中國加速人民幣買油和國際化,美元強勢能保得住嗎?這些都是美國要深思的後遺問題。
美國打貿易戰,是平衡不到外貿赤字的下下之策,不符合兩國和全球利益,只有雙方坐下來,好好商討長遠合作方案,互保長短,才能達至互利共贏目的,貿易戰是不合時宜。
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