DrEveryone should have some understanding of Ukraine’s situation by now. Western media has gradually begun to report the real situation as the U.S. President changes his policy towards Ukraine, halting aid and directly negotiating with Russia. Currently, Ukraine is in a difficult position in the war, with insufficient manpower and inadequate foreign aid, feeling betrayed by the U.S. Zelensky’s legitimacy as a leader is being questioned by Russia and even by the U.S. itself, as his pro-U.S. policies have led Ukraine into war. Not only has Ukraine failed to join NATO and gain its protection, but it has also lost territory in the West, with civilian and military casualties, entering an intractable situation in the war against Russia. During Biden’s presidency, Ukraine was used as a pawn in a proxy war against Russia, with the hope of weakening Russia without sending U.S. troops, merely providing some military supplies from allies for Ukraine to fight to the death against Russia. Although Russia is not wealthy, it is a major power, especially with extensive experience in warfare. Its leader, Putin, has a deep political background and a keen insight into international relations and situations. Thus, the Russia-Ukraine war has led to the current circumstances.

In the U.S. elections last year, Trump was elected. Changing the leadership from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party naturally brings policy changes. Furthermore, since the 21st century, the ideological divide within the U.S. has intensified, and its international influence has declined. When facing competitive rivals, its hegemonic thinking in foreign policy has encountered obstacles for the first time. The rise of China, unlike the rise of the West or Western-style models, has led to the current no-win confrontation between the U.S. and China. The U.S. has used various tactics, such as tariffs and technology sanctions, to curb China’s development. However, China has a large population, market, talent pool, strong productivity, and high efficiency, along with an effective leadership selection system. With a history of governing as a major power for thousands of years, China has a strong foundation in political and economic experience, having once been the world’s economic leader (in GDP). Its resurgence today has historical roots.

In the late Qing Dynasty, the corrupt and weak government faced invasions from Western powers, leading to a revolution by the Chinese people that overthrew the Qing government before World War I. The progress of the revolution was hindered by foreign powers and further complicated by Japan’s full-scale invasion, which created significant obstacles to the establishment of a democratic republic in China and led to a civil war. It wasn’t until the end of World War II when Japan was defeated and unconditionally surrendered, that most Western powers gave up their occupied interests in China (except Hong Kong and Macau, where the lease had not yet expired). The Chinese Communist Party unified the mainland, while the Kuomintang retreated to Taiwan, resulting in a standoff across the Taiwan Strait for 75 years. However, both sides developed their economies, achieving poverty alleviation and prosperity. Especially since the 21st century, the comprehensive progress of mainland China has been remarkable and unstoppable. China has maintained a neutral stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, advocating for a ceasefire and negotiations. Its diplomacy with the U.S. has shifted from tolerance and compromise to strategic confrontation.

Looking back at history, Ukraine was originally a founding member of the Soviet Union, a hegemonic member of the Soviet sphere. From the late 18th century to the early 20th century, Ukraine was part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Russian Empire. At the end of World-War I (July 28, 1914 – November 11, 1918), the Russian Revolution overthrew the Russian Empire (March 8, 1917), and the revolutionary movements influenced places like Germany and Ukraine. Revolution occurred in Ukraine in March 1917, and independence was declared on January 22, 1918. However, in 1922, both Soviet Russia and Ukraine became founding members of the Soviet Union, and Ukraine only declared independence in 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed.

Many commentators often compare Ukraine’s situation with that of Taiwan. The author believes there are some similarities but not significant ones. Regarding how the Russia-Ukraine war will be resolved, Ukraine should consider adopting the “one country, two systems” approach proposed by China to accommodate the peaceful reunion of different parts of China and the governance of its people. The Trump administration viewed the Ukraine issue as a mistake by Biden, and given the recent inconclusive talks between Trump and Zelensky at the White House, it is evident that Trump plans to abandon Ukraine to seek an early ceasefire to showcase his diplomatic achievements: 1. Achieving peace through a ceasefire, 2. Gaining access to Ukraine’s mineral resources, 3. Ensuring Ukraine is not able to join NATO (The U.S. offers no security guarantees.), and 4. Improving relations with Russia in hopes of countering China. Trump believes Ukraine has no bargaining chips left and must either concede land or surrender, as the U.S. is unwilling to provide any security assurances or assistance.

Under the above-described scenarios, since Ukraine lacks any guarantees for a peaceful future, it may as well adopt a drastic approach: directly propose a “one country, two systems” suggestion to Russia, obtaining an immediate cease-fire and declaring that Russia and Ukraine become one country again while maintaining Ukraine’s administrative autonomy under a dual system, fully committed to reconstruction. Under “one country, two systems,” all mutual threats between Russia and Ukraine would disappear, and Ukraine would not need to cede mineral resources to the U.S. and even forfeit all war debts (which could be forgiven or negotiated away by Russia). The current independent western regions and war zones in Ukraine could peacefully evolve under this dual system (for example, through a referendum). The greatest benefit of this proposal, leveraging the historical ties, is to abandon the negative consequences of being a pawn in a proxy war and gain the opportunity for the people to recuperate from war torture and gain a future of lasting peace. Russia would surely feel a relief and a sense of security. Ukraine could seek China as a mediator to assist in the negotiations for “one country, two systems.” The author believes China would be willing to help. This ‘one country and two systems” proposal is also the best option for Taiwan. From Zelensky’s attitude and behavior towards Trump (leaving their meeting in the White House in a huff), it can be said that he may be wise and braced enough to fully embrace the choice of “one country, two systems,” while it is hard to imagine that Taiwan’s Lai Ching-te has the courage and the wisdom of Zelensky to stand up to Trump.