Although the relationship between any two countries is very different, it is not a mystery. The factors that affect U.S.-China relations are nothing more than historical backgrounds, geopolitics, religious beliefs, economic and trade conflicts, and foreign policy (involving third parties or international issues). A country with a long history, a vast territory, a large population, many neighboring countries, and an expanding economy and trade will naturally have many international problems. If such a country is a big country, its status and influence in the world will be great, so its international relations will be complex. The relationship between China and the United States is the most important one among international relations in the world today. The quality of their relationship and whether it develops peacefully and normally are what other countries are concerned about. What’s more important is that Sino-US relations will affect the future of Taiwan and the future and well-being of the Taiwanese people.

The United States and China are located on the two continents of America and Asia. They are far apart and have no borders. The two countries have completely different histories and should not be seriously entangled. At the beginning of the last century, the Qing Dynasty in China was corrupt, and the country was also weak militarily. The people rebelled against the Qing Dynasty and established the Republic of China. Unfortunately, they were invaded by the Western powers. The obstruction by the colonial empire and Japanese militarists and especially Japan’s attempts to invade China made it difficult for the Chinese people to establish a unified republic nation. In addition, the Japanese Empire launched a full-scale war of aggression against China on September 18, 1931, Japan invaded China and occupied Manchuria in Northeast China, and in 1937, on July 7, Japan detonated the Marco Polo Bridge (created the incident) and launched a full-scale invasion of China. The war did not end until Japan surrendered on August 15, 1945, ending WW II, The Chinese people fought bravely for fourteen years against the vicious Japanese army. Only in late WW II, the United States responded to Japan’s surprise attack on Pearl Harbor by declaring war against Japan. The U.S. used atomic bombs to attack the Japanese homeland. During this period, the United States and China were allies, and the United States supported the Kuomintang government during the latter part of WW II, jointly fighting the Japanese Imperial Army.

Although China established the Republic of China in 1912, its national revolution was never completed due to the above reasons. After Japan surrendered, the Chinese had civil power struggle, and the unification movement was delayed by ‘warlords’. Eventually, the Communist Party unified the mainland and the Kuomintang retreated to Taiwan. Although Russia and the United States fought as allies against Germany and Japan, due to different ideologies, they competed for hegemony after WW II, resulting in a confrontational (bipolar) situation. Although the cross-strait confrontation between Mainland and Taiwan is China’s domestic matter, it has also been hyped into an international issue due to the ideological difference between the United States (supporting Taiwan against communism) and Russia (backing Mainland China and wooing her to join the communist union). This confrontation was a part of the Cold War. Even after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the United States won the Cold War and sought to maintain its superpower (hegemony) status, hence it was unwilling to let any nation (for example, Germany and Japan) including China rise beyond the United States. The United States distorted its one-China position flexibly into a completely ambiguous situation (diplomatic game) to prevent cross-strait reunification. Its purpose was to prevent or slow down China’s rejuvenation and nation-building. Stronger anti-China behavior becomes an irrational national security policy of the United States as China rises as a stronger nation.

Seventy-nine years have passed since the end of WW II. Though the United States has become the world’s most powerful country, it has been at war almost every year. It has spent too much money and borrowed too heavily, making it unable to maintain its superiority and world leadership as other nations rise.  Because China has committed to a continuous ‘learn and reform’ policy and opening up to the world gradually, it was able to enrich its people through hard work and innovation and to develop its industrial technologies strategically and rapidly expanding in all directions, the United States felt threatened. However, the United States has not rationally analyzed and accepted the reality of coming up with a cooperative policy with China for win-win results. Instead, it has tried its best to sanction China’s development. When the anti-China foreign policy has not been beneficial, it has then applied excessive unilateral measures in sanctions as well as lying and smearing China (China collapse theory, One Belt and One Road debt trap theory, etc.) and coercing partners to establish an anti-China alliance (AUKUS, Australia, United Kingdom, and the United States, Quad, the United States, Britain, Japan, and Australia, etc.). and forcing small countries to choose sides. However, the United States was not convincing enough and often acted too hastily (hurting itself). This can be seen from the fact that the United States frequently sends officials to visit other countries without achieving substantive success. Using the aid/borrowing bills passed by Congress to create false hopes and to deceive people (for example military support to Taiwan for defending a media-hyped imminent invasion from mainland China) is something that will eventually be seen through with time.

The U.S.’s anti-China policy is wrong, and it has resorted to unscrupulous means. Choosing military containment, economic and trade sanctions, and technology export bans that harm others little but hurt self-interest is not wise. These policies have created some thunders but little raindrops. For example, the ban on the sale of high-end semiconductor manufacturing technologies and products and forcing Taiwan’s TSMC and Japanese and Korean manufacturers to build factories in the United States cannot have fast progress (human talent development) rather it will hasten China’s self-reliance effort strengthening its world manufacturing supply position. Nowadays, China’s economy is still chugging along, the United States then promotes an ‘overcapacity’ theory blaming China for overproducing products that will damage the world economy. However, China’s One Belt One Road policy, which is pragmatic and co-prosperous, has already shown results, especially in the three new industries of electric vehicles, batteries, photovoltaics, and new green energy. In these new industries not only there is no overcapacity issue, but the demand is far greater than the supply. (Overcapacity does not apply to real estate either, fast developments must be digested.) Last year, the total exports of these three products increased by 30% and exceeded the trillion yuan mark for the first time. From the visits to China by US Treasury Secretary Yellen and Secretary of State Blinken, we can see that what the US says and what it does are different.

Taiwan’s economy is inseparable from the mainland’s economy. Even Singapore which supplies US military bases knows not to choose sides. It must pay attention to China’s development potential and cooperate with China to achieve a win-win result. Taiwanese businessmen will not be so stupid as to ignore the advantages of their Chinese roots (blood, culture, and language) and to rely solely on the U.S. with its hypocritical and fast-changing policies (faster than flipping a page). With an overzealous anti-China policy, the United States doesn’t expect to receive a prime steak, getting some beef soup may even be a luxury. The Taiwanese must understand that the United States’ over-eagerness in resisting China will bring tragic consequences, and its overcapacity is just a meaningless slogan.

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